By Tami Luhby, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: September 22, 2008: 11:39 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Bush
administration has filled in one big unknown about its proposed bailout
of the banking system - the price tag.
But many more questions have emerged as Democrats push back.
The
$700 billion plan, the most sweeping intervention in the financial
markets since the Great Depression, is aimed at stemming the credit
crisis roiling Wall Street and threatening the global markets.
Here's what we know so far:
The plan:
According to the administration's proposal, the federal government
would buy up as much as $700 billion of illiquid assets at a deep
discount from banks. The program has been expanded beyond just problem
mortgages and will now include other problem assets.
The Treasury
Department would run the program directly, unlike the savings and loan
crisis of the 1990s when Congress created the Resolution Trust Company
to spearhead a financial bailout.
"The federal government must
implement a program to remove these illiquid assets that are weighing
down our financial institutions and threatening our economy," said
Paulson.
What remains to be seen is how the Treasury Department will structure the purchases and what price they'll pay.
The
timing and scale of purchases would be at the government's discretion.
The price would be established through "market mechanisms." One method
that Treasury has suggested is a reverse auction to set the discount at
which the assets would be picked up.
The window for the
government to purchase the bad assets closes after two years. Private
money managers would oversee the assets while they are in the
government's possession.
Paulson, speaking Sunday on television,
clarified that firms with business operations in the United States are
eligible. The original legislative proposal said that only banks with
headquarters in the United States qualify.
The cost: While
the proposal calls for the purchase of as much as $700 billion of bad
loans, it's unknown what taxpayers would ultimately pay for the bailout.
The
government will likely buy the assets at below-market rates and hold
onto them until the market recovers. Ideally, the loans could then be
sold at a gain.
"We're talking about hundreds of billions of
dollars, but remember this is not an expenditure, this is money that is
being used to purchase illiquid mortgage assets that are very difficult
to value," Paulson said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "They will be held
[by the Treasury] and they will be resold at some time. And so we can't
determine what the cost is today. That's going to be based on how
quickly the economy recovers, what happens in the mortgage market."
It's possible that Americans won't end up on the hook.
"The
government could make a profit, a substantial profit," said Jaret
Seiberg, a financial services analyst at the Stanford Group, a policy
research firm. "The pricing mechanism is going to be central."
As
part of the program, the administration wants Congress to increase the
nation's debt ceiling. Currently, it's set to rise to $10.6 trillion
for fiscal year 2009, which starts Oct. 1. The proposal calls for the
limit be increased to $11.315 trillion to accommodate the purchase of
the mortgage-backed securities.
Will it work? The jury is
still out, although experts are cautiously optimistic the plan will
help the housing market - and therefore the economy - recover.
The
plan will help banks shore up their balance sheets by removing
hard-to-value assets. This would address the seemingly endless rounds
of writedowns and capital raising that have been rocking the financial
sector.
Without these bad loans weighing on their books, banks may be more willing to lend. Or at least that's the goal.
Naysayers,
however, worry that many banks may be turned off by the haircut they'll
have to take. If these assets are purchased at a deep discount, the
banks could have to take a huge writedowns, which may hurt their
operations and ability to raise capital.
Also, some experts warn
that the bailout will not automatically make banks profitable, nor will
it stop the slide in home values that is wreaking havoc on the economy.
But Paulson argues that this plan will help the economy directly.
"The
biggest help we can give the American people is to stabilize our
financial system right now and to prevent the system from clogging up,
because if it does clog up, this is going to have an adverse effect on
people's abilities to get jobs, on their budgets, on their retirement
savings, on lending for small businesses," Paulson said on ABC's "This
Week" Sunday. And so, that's where the first priority has got to be.
Will it help homeowners?
It's unclear at this point. If the government buys an entire
securitized loan, it could opt to help struggling homeowners by
modifying the terms. This could include reducing a loan's interest rate
or principal balance.
But it could prove difficult to snap up all
the securities sold on a mortgage, experts said. And as long as
investors still hold a piece, they could block any changes to the loan.
If
the plan doesn't stem the tide of foreclosures, home prices will not
stabilize and the economy will not recover, experts said.
Next steps: Lawmakers are reviewing the plan and have scheduled hearings on the matter in the next few days.
While
the administration and congressional Republicans are pushing for a
"clean and quick" deal, Democrats are voicing concerns about struggling
homeowners.
"You have got to deal with that issue of foreclosure,
or this problem will persist," said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn.,
head of the Banking Committee.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,
D-Calif., said Democrats believe a responsible solution should include
independent oversight, protections for homeowners and caps on executive
compensation.
"We will not simply hand over a $700 billion blank check to Wall Street and hope for a better outcome," she said.
A deal could be hammered out as soon as this week.