By Amy Sullivan
If it seems like John McCain and Barack Obama
have been training serious fire on each other earlier than party
nominees have in previous general elections, it's not just because
passions are running high as a result of the Iraq war or the economy's
woes. It also has something to do with the fact that the actual voting
for President starts this week, and a record number of Americans are
expected to pull the lever long before Nov. 4.
Even though bags of candy corn and other Halloween treats have
barely hit drugstore shelves, Virginia voters will start casting their
ballots on Friday at early-voting sites around the commonwealth.
Another half-dozen states will open up early voting next week, before
the candidates even meet for their first debate of the campaign. In
all, 36 of the 50 states will allow early voting this year, including
many key battleground states like Ohio and Colorado. As many as
one-third of all voters are expected to make their selection before
Election Day.
This new reality is upending traditional campaign strategies not
just for the organizations of Obama and McCain but also for down-ballot
candidates and ballot-initiative efforts. And it has hyper-compressed
the presidential race. No sooner had the nominees selected their
running mates and introduced them to the nation than they began
pivoting to present their closing arguments, as Obama almost appears to
be doing in his new 2-min. economy ad.
In years past, candidates stayed on alert for an "October surprise"
that could alter the race at the last minute. But in the brave new
world of accelerated elections, any October surprise may come too late.
Presidential campaigns have long followed the same familiar
calendar: a primary season, followed by party conventions, debates
between the major-party candidates, a four-day intensive
get-out-the-vote push that usually starts around Halloween and finally
— after voters have sifted through ads and arguments or perhaps flipped
a coin — Election Day. But in recent years the availability of early
voting, whether by mail or in person (with some polling places open on
weekends), has increased as voters have demanded a convenient
alternative to waiting in long lines on the first Tuesday of November.
Because Election Day is not a national holiday, most Americans—with
the exception of unionized workers like the Teamsters who have long
negotiated to get the day off—have to rely on the indulgence of their
employers or wait sometimes for hours in the evening in order to vote.
A decade ago, only a handful of states offered early-voting options.
Nationwide, 15% of the electorate cast early ballots in the 2000
presidential election. By 2004, 20% did so, and in the 2006
congressional elections, nearly one-quarter of all votes came from
early voters.
At the state level, the percentages are even higher. Early voting
accounted for almost 30% of Montana ballots in 2006 and 34% of votes in
the state's primary this June. In Colorado, county clerks estimate that
almost half of active voters in this year's general election will vote
before Election Day; in some particularly competitive counties, as many
as 60% are expected to vote at early-voting centers.
One of the puzzles campaigns are still trying to solve is who gets
an edge from early voting. When the use of absentee ballots was largely
limited to elderly shut-ins, Republicans were assumed to have an
advantage. "Traditionally, Republicans have done a better job with
mail-in ballots," says Mike Hamrick, chair of the Arapahoe County
Democrats in Colorado. "We always used to say, Democrats win on
Election Day and Republicans win in the post office." But as the
popularity of early voting grows, the sheer number of voters involved
makes that slice of the electorate more diverse. Polling in 2004 and
2006 has shown that those who utilize early voting still tend to be
older, which would seem to help McCain—but they're also more educated
and affluent, demographics that have supported Obama this year.
In addition, more early-voting centers are being located at colleges
and universities, a change that significantly affects student turnout.
Students at the University of North Carolina and N.C. State were able
to vote on campus throughout the two weeks leading up to North
Carolina's primary contest in April. At Duke University, however,
students had to make their way to voting sites in the city of Durham.
While turnout for Durham County was 52% in the Democratic primary, only
11% of eligible Duke students voted. This fall, however, Duke will have
its own early-voting center, open for business starting Oct. 16.
Early voting can pose logistical challenges for campaigns. The
quality of voter databases already varies widely among local party
organizations, but now it's critical that candidates have a reliable
way of eliminating the names of early voters from their target lists.
(County clerk offices usually release those lists on a weekly basis.)
"You don't want to chase people who have already voted," explains
Nathan Chambers, chair of the Arapahoe County GOP. Early voting has
also made exit polling in some areas decreasingly reliable as it fails
to pick up large segments of the electorate.
The accelerated campaign season puts special pressure on down-ballot
candidates. Voters traditionally gather information about local races
and ballot initiatives late in a campaign cycle. With less time to
define themselves and their opponents, local candidates may end up
spending more money to cycle quickly through "meet the candidate"
commercials and then contrast and attack ads before voting starts.
The shift can also affect how a campaign chooses to devote its
resources and time on the trail. During the Democratic primaries, some
of Hillary Clinton's senior advisers made a case for downplaying or
even skipping Iowa, based on the argument that early voting would limit
the importance of winning that state. "Iowans will not be the first to
vote," Clinton's deputy campaign manager Mike Henry wrote in a memo.
And indeed, one reason for Clinton's comeback victory in New
Hampshire was that her campaign had focused on nailing down early votes
via mail-in ballots before Iowans even gathered at caucuses to make
Obama their winner. Depending on your view, Oregon is either the ideal
or the dangerous conclusion of the early-voting trend: in 1998 the
state eliminated voting booths altogether and switched over to a 100%
vote-by-mail system. Because ballots must be received, not just
postmarked, by Election Day, most Oregonians make their decisions and
send off their ballots long before those last few days that campaign
professionals have traditionally used to persuade undecided voters.
Given the stakes in this election, many voters may still wait until
the last moment rather than rushing to cast a ballot as soon as early
voting begins in their state. After putting up with the race for this
long, one would think, Why would voters head for the polls before even
hearing the two presidential candidates address each other directly in
a debate? Then again, after being subjected to almost two years of near
endless campaigning and media coverage, the option of just voting and
being done with it all may be harder to resist than either candidate's
pitch.